Keiretsu: An interesting Concept

Summary: What was Japan's Lost Decade? How Did it Happen?

Original Article Written by TheStreet, published December 12, 2022

Keiretsu: a Japanese organizational structure composed of operationally independent entities, organized vertically or horizontally, that have formed an alliance and an invested interest in one another. While the most prominent entities within each member group can influence smaller, reliant entity members, each can act as research and development modules for each other and as the supply chain, lender, and insurer (Twomey, 2019).

Bubbles. They all pop, eventually.

Japan was deflated after the second world war. Its national pride was hurt, and its agriculture primarily supported its economy. However, by the 1980s, Japan found a way forward and became the world's second-largest economy. "People sported Sony Walkmans" and "drove Japanese cars around town." Children could find Japanese cartoons watched on televisions made by Japanese manufacturers. 

Japan's businesses reached their height by structuring themselves with a concept called keiretsu"a close-knit network of business interests centered around a main bank." The companies took majority interests in each other instead of being publicly financed. "This 'socially-controlled' investment provided the perfect conditions" to research and develop ideas and products before being shared with a broader market. Companies such as Mitsubishi Group were a conglomerate made up of its own financial institution, an insurer, and other subsidiaries with the resources and ideas to self-generate - "essentially acting as its own supply chain."

The Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry credits the success of the 1970s and 1980s with the keiretsu business concept and a period where these businesses were protected from foreign competition. This sheltering allowed companies to grow into dominating powerhouses with the confidence and resources to expand their export strategies to the broader global marketplace, "which is how Japan's electronics, computer, automotive, and aircraft industries grew so quickly."

"It was said that one square mile in Tokyo's government center was worth more than the entire state of California, (TheStreet Staff, 2022)."

With the growth of these industries, Japan's stock market also benefited and experienced growth. The Nikkei Stock Average "hit an all-time high of 38,916 on December 29, 1989." Real estate also grew more valuable - "commercial land prices rose to over 300% between 1985 and 1991." However, as we experienced in the US in the lead-up to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, "as asset prices grew, so did speculation," especially in real estate. "Banks were lending and not looking twice. Sometimes, collateral was not even required, (TheStreet Staff, 2022)."

And, oh, how it popped.

As the Bank of Japan started steep interest rate hikes to slow the swell, speculators quickly defaulted on their investments, and several of Japan's largest keiretsu banks began to fail, " threatening to take entire industries down with them." With resources at their member banks becoming less attainable for the companies that made up the keiretsus, they began looking for funding outside of their keiretsus, which resulted in many companies taking on more debt than they could handle.
Only one year after the Nikkei hit its all-time high, it lost 43% of its value by December 1990. And so Japan entered a decade-long deep recession between 1991 and 2001.

They tried their best to right the ship, but nothing seemed to work:

  • Interest rates were slashed to zero.

  • Which caused land prices to drop "15% in some of Japan's largest cities, which meant homeowners owned more than their homes were worth."

  • The government instituted large-scale stimulus packages.

  • This added to the country's deficit and created more jobs for projects like repairing bridges and building new roads, "even when they weren't completely necessary." 

Many investors were holding onto their purse strings with a tight grip, essentially forming a liquidity trap with such a poor outlook in mind for the economy. 

A quantitative easing program by Japan's central bank to increase liquidity in the market by buying many government bonds from the nation's largest banks to stimulate the economy eventually helped Japan pull out of its financial troubles.

China is also credited with boosting Japan's economy by entering the global market and exporting goods that rely on parts made by Japanese manufacturers (TheStreet Staff, 2022).

Pros and Cons of Keiretsu:

Pros:

  • Members exercise similar business best practices and establish like standards.

  • They reduce their exposure to risk by managing most variables within their groups.

  • Costs are reduced, related to souring products and parts, as members contribute to one another as a closed-loop supply chain.

  • Each member holds each others' shares through cross-shareholding (which fends off hostile takeovers).

  • Information sharing within each member group has shown an increase in efficiency and productivity.

  • Horizontally formed keiretsus have a trading company as a member that coordinates trade within the group and among outside independent organizations and foreign groups. Horizontally formed groups can seek funding outside their group and are not bound to use their member bank exclusively.

Cons:

  • Risk of borrowing beyond a company's means by having funding resources within arm's length through its member bank.

  • Larger member groups are slower to respond to market changes, as one member may need to make a decision while seeking approval from other members, or technology shortfalls may bind them.

  • This system can also emulate monopoly ventures and appear to exhibit insular tendencies.

  • When organized vertically, extremely large keiretsus can be comprised of members who may not be aware that they are affiliated with certain other entities at the top of the group. And members at the top may not be fully aware of the smaller entities that sit along the bottom of their group.

  • The future of keiretsu as we know it now may be subject to change, especially given the ever-growing global economy and the speed at which business moves in these modern times. Keiretsus may need to adapt to build a successful future.

Examples of Keiretsu:

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/management/keiretsu/ (Keiretsu, 2022)

References:

Keiretsu. (n.d.). Corporate Finance Institute. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/management/keiretsu 

Liberto, D. (2019). Keiretsu Definition. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/keiretsu.asp 

TheStreet Staff. (2022, December 12). What was Japan's Lost Decade? How Did it Happen? [Review of What was Japan's Lost Decade? How Did it Happen?]. TheStreet. https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/j/japans-lost-decade

Twomey, B. (2019). Understanding Japanese Keiretsu. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/japanese-keiretsu.asp 

III, J. H. (1991, December 30). 1991 Trivia, Fun Facts and History. Pop Culture | History | Facts | Trivia. https://popculturemadness.com/PCM/1991/1991-trivia-fun-facts-and-history

InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) Undervaluation

Is There An Opportunity With InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's (LON:IHG) 20% Undervaluation?

About where we're heading in our Principles of Finance course (BUAD 5127), this article came across my newsfeed this morning, and it hit the mark, I believe, for a topic on this forum.

The authors of this article (not attributed, published by Simply Wall St.) have used IHG as a short case study into InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's stock valuation, using methods we've been learning to this point. They estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value (Is There An Opportunity With InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's (LON:IHG) 20% Undervaluation? (2021, November 27)).

They used a two-stage growth method, with assumptions of both a higher growth rate and a stable growth rate. The finding of this article is timely since we just projected Ferrari N.V.'s future cash flows (2015-2019). Having now been introduced to adjusting the growth rate for different scenarios and outcomes, we can adapt our FCF analysis if there are indications of changes in their growth rate.

In their analysis, the authors estimate out ten years of IHG's cash flows to 2031. When projecting, they mention using analyst estimates, but when not available, they used historical data to extrapolate data (e.g., growth rates, ratios, YoY, etc.). Where the growth rate is shrinking, they assume that the company will slow the pace of their shrinkage, and where it's growing, they imply that the growth rate will slow over their estimated period.

They then used the Discounted Cash Flow model to draw back the present value of IHG's future cash flows. When they reached the equity value, they divided it by the number of outstanding shares, resulting in their findings.

Spoiler alert: Just as the headline baited us to believe, yes, the authors of this article believe IHG is currently undervalued, at a 20% discount. In British pounds, IHG (at the time of this article's publishing) was trading at GBP45.80 (USD61.10), and their analysis concluded the fair value at GBP57.51 (USD76.72). Seeing as how IHG suffered incredible losses last year, as many in the hospitality industry experienced in 2020, it wouldn't surprise me at all if this article was the result of a well-strategized PR team, hoping holiday spending will inspire trading activity and more travel in 2022.

InterContinental Hotels Group executive offices operate out of Denham, Buckinghamshire, England. IHG owns and operates four distinct property types, with over sixteen brands within their umbrella, in over six thousand locations globally. Today, IHG opened the market at 63.48, with a market cap of 11.46B, with 187,717,720 outstanding shares (at the time of their 2020 20-F Report filing) (InterContinental Hotels Group PLC, 2021).

https://www.ihg.com/content/us/en/about/brands

References

  • https://news.yahoo.com/opportunity-intercontinental-hotels-group-plcs-072303558.html

  • InterContinental Hotels Group PLC. (2021, March 4). Form 20-F. Retrieved from http://www.sec.gov

  • Is There An Opportunity With InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's (LON:IHG) 20% Undervaluation? (2021, November 27). News.yahoo.com. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://news.yahoo.com/opportunity-intercontinental-hotels-group-plcs-072303558.html

Exxon Debates Abandoning Some of Its Biggest Oil and Gas Projects

Exxon Mobil Corp's board of directors is considering abandoning current large-scale projects in Mozambique and Vietnam and is reworking its investment strategy. At least three new members were recently voted on after successfully being nominated by an activist investor. This new board has expressed concerns about a few projects in their infancy and is discussing the fate of future projects as the company faces pressure from investors to restrain fossil-fuel investment, return more cash to shareholders, and repay some of its debt (Matthews & Glazer, 2021).

The ongoing discussion about the corporation's steps over the next five years to invest in new revenue production is a part of an internal review of Exxon's five-year spending program. This review undoubtedly occurs with adjustments to the underlying drivers their financial team uses to modify assumptions within the corporation's five-year forecast. One of the topics in the article that is repeated more than once and stands out as a red flag is a focus on generating more significant short-term returns to pay back their investors and increase dividends. Exxon is indeed looking much further ahead than the next five years and seems to be concerned about its seat at the energy sector's table in 2050 - a year highlighted as a significant turning point by climate change activists. It is also important to note that analysts expect Exxon to report $6 billion in quarterly profits later this month after losing $680 million during the same period last year amidst the pandemic (Matthews & Glazer, 2021). Beyond returning money to investors, their strategy for the next five years will involve investigating their relationship with renewable energy production. It will attempt to position itself as a proponent of change by what it will classify as setting a good example.

Reference:

Matthews, C., & Glazer, E. (2021, October 20). Exxon Debates Abandoning Some of Its Biggest Oil and Gas Projects [Review of Exxon Debates Abandoning Some of Its Biggest Oil and Gas Projects]. Dow Jones & Company, Inc.; The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-debates-abandoning-some-of-its-biggest-oil-and-gas-projects-11634739779

"Profit Margin," WSJ: State Street to Buy Brown Brothers Harriman Investor Services for $3.5 Billion.

State Street Corp. has agreed to purchase the investor-services unit of Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., a move that advances its position in the money-management industry above Bank of New York Mellon Corp. In recent history, State Street has struggled to increase revenue in the asset-servicing portion of its business due to pressure from its current clients to lower costs and reduce the fees they pay for tracking their assets. With this purchase, State Streets projects a future rise in its per-share earnings and increases its pre-tax profit margin, along with its goal to cut expenses.

It seems as though the use of the term profit margin in the article is correct. Having spent the past two days reviewing the information in Module 2 concerning financial ratios and more specifically, how we calculate profit margins, I understand that this acquisition will come along with many goodwill assets, which will grow in new revenue. This goodwill may likely include a new, built-in client base and potentially a ton of data that will save State Street money in its administrative and other operating costs in not compiling that data on its own nor working to grow its client base. They're forecasting an increase in their revenue from fees and a potential decrease in their operating expenses, and a hope that this acquisition will realize gains and see an increase in their investment income.

Reference:

Baer, J., & Sebastian, D. (2021, September 7). State Street to Buy Brown Brothers Harriman Investor Services for $3.5 Billion. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-street-to-buy-brown-brothers-harriman-investor-services-for-3-5-billion-11631021246?mod=searchresults_pos1&page=1.